Monero Falls 15% in a Day as Selling Pressure Intensifies

Monero (XMR), the leading privacy coin, is facing strong selling pressure this week after dropping nearly 15% in just 24 hours. The decline comes after a sharp seven-week rally that pushed XMR from $165 to over $420. On Wednesday, the price fell to around $325, with futures data and on-chain trends suggesting that bearish sentiment may be taking over, at least for now.

The market cap has dropped more than 11% to $6.3 billion, while trading volume has risen by 22%, leaving investors uncertain whether this is a normal pullback or the beginning of a deeper decline.

Futures Data Shows Rising Market Pressure

Let’s begin with the underlying dynamics. Futures activity is picking up, which is typically not a positive signal when prices are falling. According to Coinglass, Monero’s open interest (OI) reached 161.37K XMR this week, the highest level since December 20, marking a 20% increase in just three days.

Rising open interest during a price decline often indicates that new short positions are being opened, suggesting traders are expecting further downside. This is more than just routine volatility—it reflects a shift in market sentiment. What stands out most is how quickly that shift occurred. After weeks of optimism driven by Monero’s upcoming FCMP++ upgrade and renewed regulatory attention in the U.S., the abrupt turn toward bearishness has surprised many.

Even so, experienced traders understand that a pullback after a 150% rally in less than two months isn't unusual. Still, the speed and severity of this correction are drawing attention.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Growing Sell Pressure

There’s a deeper layer to this correction, and it originates from the blockchain itself. On-chain data indicates that the recent pullback isn’t purely technical—it’s also driven by sentiment. According to CryptoQuant, Monero’s Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has stayed negative for several days, signaling that selling pressure continues to outweigh buying interest.

Another key indicator is the Taker CVD, which measures the difference between market buy and sell volumes. It has remained in negative territory since early May, suggesting that sell orders are not only larger but also more aggressive.

What complicates the picture further is the apparent involvement of retail investors. CryptoQuant’s “Futures Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency” metric shows a noticeable increase in retail participation. Historically, a surge in retail trading near the end of a rally has often signaled a local top. This pattern appears to be repeating itself now.

Could Monero Fall Further?

From a technical standpoint, Monero appears vulnerable. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 49 after failing to break above the overbought threshold of 70. This dip below the neutral level suggests that bearish momentum is gaining strength. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has also turned negative, signaling a bearish crossover commonly interpreted by traders as a potential sell trigger.

If the current trend continues, XMR may revisit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $303.61, based on the move from the April low of $185.93 to the May high of $420.08. While not a major breakdown, such a move would confirm that the recent decline is more than just a brief pullback.

That said, bulls have not completely lost control. If demand picks up and XMR remains above the key $300 level, a recovery could still be possible. A return to the $380–$400 range may come into view if sentiment improves and retail selling gives way to more stable accumulation.

Still, that outcome remains uncertain—for now, bearish momentum appears to have the upper hand.

What to Expect From XMR?

Monero’s recent drop shows how fast market sentiment can change. After weeks of optimism, both futures and on-chain data now point to strong bearish momentum. Rising short positions, heavy selling, and more retail activity suggest the market is under pressure.

That said, the situation could improve. Key support around $300 might hold, and if sentiment shifts, Monero could move back toward recent highs. But until buyers step back in, there’s a risk of further decline. For now, traders will be watching closely to see if XMR can stabilize or if it will keep falling.