Bitcoin Could Be in the Later Stages of the Bear Market
There is a cyclical transition in the bitcoin market, which occurs against the background of a sharp change in the ratio of aggregate gains and losses.
The structural changes in the market can be seen when looking at the proportion of realized gains and losses. For the first time since April 2022 there is a transition of dominance from the latter to the former.
The same metric in terms of realized capitalization suggests that the process has not yet gained the momentum typical of a bull market's apogee or moments of capitulation.
Most of the coins on the move have been purchased relatively close to the current spot price. They are not yet capturing a large realized "load."
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator showed the market value exceeding the average purchase price of the coins. In other words, the typical bitcoin holder is "in the black" again.
The "loss-making" investment period lasted 166 days. This is comparable to the cycles of 2011-2012 (157 days) and 2018-2019 (134 days), but inferior to the events of 2015-2016 (301 days).
The SOPR indicator, as applied to short-term investors, is in the zone above the key 1 mark for the first time since March 2022. In other words, this is the first surge in a large volume of coins purchased at lower prices in recent months.
The Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, focusing on coins with a "age" of three months or less, showed an increase in "wealth" held by new owners due to the transition from older owners. The depth of this momentum is historically unprecedented.
The Realized HODL Ratio indicator confirms the above observation, showing both the trend and the rate of change of wealth rotation to recent bitcoin buyers.