Toncoin Faces 17% Dip in a Week as Bearish Trend Continues

In the past week, Toncoin has experienced a notable decline, dropping by 17% as the market sentiment remains bearish. Despite earlier positive signs, concerns over its ecosystem and network growth have led to a sharp sell-off, with whales contributing to the downward momentum. As of Thursday, Toncoin reached a crucial support level of $2.90, down from its 2024 high, highlighting the ongoing struggles for the once-promising token.

Recent TON Struggles

Toncoin’s price is facing persistent challenges, largely due to weak on-chain metrics and ecosystem performance. A major indicator of these struggles is the drastic reduction in daily transactions on the TON Blockchain. Once processing as many as 20 million transactions daily, the network now handles just 2.2 million, signaling a decline in user engagement. Additionally, monthly active wallets have dropped sharply—from 5.2 million in February to just 2.8 million today.

This slowdown is compounded by the disappointment surrounding tokens within the TON ecosystem, such as Hamster Kombat and Catizen, which have both seen sharp declines. These projects, which rely on the TON blockchain, have faced criticism for poorly executed airdrops and perceived unfair reward distribution. While these issues have sparked frustration within the community, they are only part of a broader picture of Toncoin’s struggles. The decline in user activity is further evidenced by the falling number of monthly active addresses, dropping 83% from the September 2024 peak to 2.3 million.

Of course, the weekly decline in Toncoin's price aligns with the broader market fall caused by Trump's tariffs. However, since the 90-day tariff pause took effect, most cryptocurrencies have started to show signs of recovery. Still, Toncoin’s daily drop of 1.92% still contributes to its overall downturn, emphasizing that it’s facing challenges that go beyond just macroeconomic factors.

The Impact of Whale Activity

The sudden surge in whale activity during early April has also raised alarms. Toncoin had previously made an optimistic push above the $3.95 resistance level, hinting at a possible recovery toward $4.80. However, these hopes were quickly dashed when whales started unloading their holdings. The increased selling pressure has exacerbated the coin's drop, with Toncoin shedding 26.6% in just 8 days.

As whales continued to move their positions, the average directional index (ADX) climbed to 27, suggesting that the bearish trend is strengthening. The stochastic oscillator, another technical indicator, has also entered the oversold zone. These indicators point toward further declines, with analysts predicting that Toncoin could fall to the psychological $2.00 level—a 35% drop from its current price.

Is Toncoin's Downturn Temporary?

Despite the current downturn, there’s still some optimism among certain Toncoin supporters. Steve Yun, a key figure behind the TON Foundation, remains confident in the long-term potential of Toncoin. He highlighted that despite recent setbacks the TON network has remained resilient. Yun believes that the TON blockchain is an independent, self-sustaining ecosystem, continuing to attract developer interest, especially with its ongoing work on new programming languages like Tolk and Tact.

Moreover, the integration of TON Wallet into Telegram in 2023 was a significant milestone, bringing Toncoin into the spotlight and temporarily boosting its position among the top ten cryptocurrencies. However, despite this boost, the coin has seen significant losses, with its value falling more than 70% since its peak in June 2024. Toncoin now ranks 16th by market capitalization, a clear sign of the challenges it faces in maintaining momentum.

Looking at key support and resistance levels, Toncoin currently faces crucial support at $2.88 and $2.68. If it manages to hold above these levels, there may still be a chance for a rebound. However, if the coin fails to stabilize, it could continue its downward trend, with downside targets at $2.37. On the other hand, resistance is seen at $3.88 and $4.12, with any upward movement requiring a breakout above these levels for a more sustainable recovery.

Toncoin’s Future Outlook

Toncoin's recent 17% dip highlights the ongoing challenges it faces, including weak ecosystem performance and significant whale activity. Despite these struggles, there remains cautious optimism among some supporters, with the potential for a recovery if key support levels hold.

However, with the broader market still feeling the effects of external factors like Trump's tariffs, Toncoin's short-term outlook remains uncertain. For now, all eyes will be on whether the coin can break through resistance and stabilize above crucial support levels.