U.S. Economic Indicators That Could Impact Crypto This Week

As tensions between countries stay high, attention moves to the U.S. economy and key signals that might affect financial and crypto markets. After a volatile weekend, traders are preparing for more ups and downs, shaped by economic shifts and new messages from U.S. policymakers.

Three economic events stand out this week: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, recent jobless claims, and the PCE report. While these indicators have long influenced traditional markets, their significance for crypto is growing as digital currencies become more reactive to changes in rate expectations, inflation readings, and labor data.

Jerome Powell’s Testimony

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before Congress on June 24 to present his semiannual monetary policy report. These appearances have gained significance as markets dissect not only his words but also the tone behind them.

Following the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady amid President Trump’s calls for cuts, Powell’s testimony will likely address rising inflation risks and growing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz threatening oil supplies.

Crypto and broader financial markets are closely monitoring the situation. If the tone is hawkish, it suggests rates could remain elevated, potentially weighing on Bitcoin, similar to past times of uncertainty. A more dovish tone, signaling rate cuts, could encourage a crypto recovery and push BTC over $100,000. A neutral approach might offer some temporary calm, but ongoing geopolitical tensions mean volatility will likely persist.

Labor Market Claims

Beyond Powell’s testimony, Thursday’s initial jobless claims report could also play a key role in shaping market sentiment. Last week, 245,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits, above expectations and a potential sign of softening in the labor market. Economists now forecast a slight increase, with claims possibly reaching 248,000.

Rising jobless claims could lead to lower interest rates. When rates go down, the dollar often loses value, and that can increase demand for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Recently, crypto has been moving much like stocks: rising when the economy seems weak and falling when it looks strong.

Yet, the situation isn’t always simple. A sudden spike in unemployment could fuel recession concerns and push some investors away from volatile markets. This makes Thursday’s report especially important for both traditional investors and those trading crypto.

PCE Inflation Report

Friday will bring the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is likely the week’s most important data. The Federal Reserve regards the PCE as its main inflation measure, giving it more weight than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Investors will focus particularly on core PCE, which excludes food and energy, two categories that have been especially volatile due to ongoing global tensions.

The previous report showed a 2.1% annual increase, with core PCE at 2.5%. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect a slight uptick for May. While such changes may appear small, even a 0.1% surprise can alter market expectations for interest rate decisions.

For the crypto market, the implications are simple. Rising inflation may reduce the likelihood of a September rate cut, which could weigh on Bitcoin and similar assets. However, if inflation is softer and Powell’s earlier remarks remain dovish, the market could see a rebound.

Confidence also remains a significant concern. Should inflation keep climbing, doubts about the Fed’s capacity to control it could emerge, leading to uncertainty that tends to boost Bitcoin demand.

What This Means for Investors?

This week’s economic indicators could directly influence the momentum of the crypto market. With Bitcoin hovering near key psychological levels, even subtle shifts in inflation data or Powell’s tone could trigger significant price moves.

For investors, maintaining vigilance as markets interpret these signals will be crucial. While volatility is inevitable, it also presents opportunities for those able to analyze nuances and respond decisively.