Toncoin Breaks $4 Resistance: Will the Bull Run Continue?

Toncoin (TON) has made quite the statement recently. After hitting a low of $2.35 earlier in March, the token staged an impressive comeback, surging over 66% in just three weeks. What’s more, it has finally broken the $4 resistance level, a barrier that’s been difficult to surpass since early February.

As of now, TON is trading at $4.09, marking a 5.27% increase on the day and an 11.67% rise over the past week. But can this momentum continue, or is this just a brief surge?

Institutional Backing and Market Sentiment Shift

Toncoin started rising on March 15 after news broke that French authorities allowed Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov, to leave the country. Durov had been arrested in August last year over his alleged involvement in a platform linked to illegal activities. Since then, the positive momentum has been building, contributing to the ongoing price surge as investors gained renewed confidence in the project.

One of the key drivers behind Toncoin’s recent surge is the announcement from the TON Foundation that it raised over $400 million in Toncoin from prominent venture capital firms. Investors like Sequoia Capital, Benchmark, and Ribbit Capital took part, showing strong support for Toncoin’s future. What’s interesting is that the funding was raised in Toncoin itself, not traditional stock — a sign that investors believe in the token's value and utility. This highlights the growing trend of crypto-based investments, with more companies backing blockchain networks.

In addition, Peter Fenton from Benchmark emphasized the potential of Telegram’s user base, predicting it could grow to 1.5 billion by 2030. If this comes to fruition, it could be an unprecedented opportunity for Toncoin to become a major player in the digital economy. The partnership between TON and Telegram, which already boasts over 700 million active users, positions Toncoin as a potential tool for facilitating widespread financial transactions, making this a compelling prospect for investors.

Technical Indicators Say Bulls Are In Control

From a technical perspective, Toncoin has all the signs of a continued bull run. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 60, signaling that the market is in moderately bullish territory. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recently showed a bullish crossover, suggesting the uptrend is likely to persist. As long as TON can maintain support around $3.68, there's a strong chance the price will test the next resistance level at $4.62.

Another key point to note is the increasing Open Interest (OI) in Toncoin futures, which recently hit a new yearly high of $192.20 million. A rise in OI typically indicates that new money is entering the market, which can fuel further price increases. What's also interesting is that Toncoin has shown little correlation with other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Shiba Inu. This could suggest that it’s not simply following the broader market trend, but is running its own race — which could mean that even if Bitcoin experiences a correction, Toncoin could continue its momentum.

Can TON Hold Its Ground?

While the outlook for Toncoin looks positive, there are still risks to consider. Market sentiment remains somewhat bearish, and if the broader crypto market takes another downturn, it could pull Toncoin down with it. The potential for a "death cross" — when the short-term moving average dips below the long-term average — remains a concern. This could indicate that the bulls are losing steam, and the price could slide to the $3.66 range.

However, for now, Toncoin’s bullish indicators outweigh the risks. The increasing capital inflows, the growing institutional support, and the bullish technical signals suggest that the price could continue to rise, with the next target being $4.5 or even $4.8. But as always, timing the market is tricky, and investors should stay vigilant for any signs of a slowdown.

Conclusion

All in all, Toncoin's recent breakthrough above the $4 resistance level, combined with strong institutional backing and positive technical indicators, signals a promising future. While there are still risks and the broader market sentiment remains cautious, the momentum behind Toncoin suggests that further gains are possible.

As always, investors should stay alert to market shifts, but for now, Toncoin is showing signs of strength that could propel it toward higher price levels in the near future.