Experts Predict Bitcoin Explosive Moves In Either Direction
Realized volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to extreme lows, which historically preceded explosive moves in either direction.
In nine similar cases, after such low realized volatility on the monthly horizon (24.6%), there was a wave of growth and only in one - decrease with a drop of 50%.
Ethereum previously recorded only three similar episodes of extremely low volatility (39.8%). In particular, there was a 58% collapse in November 2018 and a rise to a historical maximum in July 2020.
Not so long ago, there was a short-term spike in the metric of new bitcoin addresses, followed by a return to the annual average baseline. Daily onchain transfer volume collapsed to pre-bull market levels in 2020.
According to analysts, this suggests that use of the network has yet to achieve a convincing and sustained recovery, and institutional investors have reduced their activity. The latter may be due to a decline in confidence in the cryptocurrency market or getting rid of "questionable" capital flows.
The Ethereum network has been fluctuating in the 16-23 Gwei range since September. Previously, it was observed during the consolidation period of June-July 2021 and in May 2020 after the panic caused by COVID.
The share of MEV bots, bridges, DeFi-protocols and ERC-20 tokens in gas consumption decreased from 45.5% (between September 2020 and September 2021) to 22.6%. The share of NFT-related transactions increased from 13% to 22% over the same period.
Bitcoin's realized capitalization from ATH decreased by 18.8% (the second highest in history) or $88.4 billion in value terms (an all-time record). According to calculations, the current losses are equivalent to the total capital invested since the second half of 2021.
The realized capitalization of Ethereum from ATH collapsed by 29.2% (the second highest in history) or by $67.1 billion in value terms (an absolute record).