Analyst Outlines What BTC Needs to Recover the $100K–$120K Zone

The recent decline in Bitcoin has tested even experienced traders, and many are unsure when momentum will return. But some analysts see signs that the market might be closer to a change than it seems.

UK custodian Copper says the current trend looks like the “late downtrend” stage seen before big recoveries in past Bitcoin cycles. The key question is what catalyst will spark the next move.

The Impact of Fading ETF Influence

In the early phase of this decline, spot Bitcoin ETF flows dominated every price discussion. Redemptions dragged BTC down almost instantly. According to Copper, that influence has faded sharply. The 30-day elasticity between flows and returns is near the lowest point of the year.

A weaker link usually signals that most forced selling is already behind the market. Big sellers step back, and short sellers have less control. A price floor often builds quietly in this type of setup.

Copper highlights specific “ownership bands” that reflect where ETFs have been accumulating:

• $40K to $60K: limited ETF presence.
• $70K to $90K: moderate ETF buying.
• $100K to $120K: strongest ownership base.

Each band acts as a higher step on the chart. When ETFs enter a higher step, gains often appear during the next ten days, usually around 10% to 13%.

Right now, ETFs are still near the highest step. That can be positive, but in past data, returns in this zone turn slightly negative once inflows slow. More demand is needed to keep moving up.

What Must Change for the Next Uptrend?

BTC is currently near $91,000, sitting between structural supports while lacking enough momentum to reach six-figure territory again. When ETF demand slows, price behavior often becomes flat with a mild downward tilt. The latest sessions reflect that.

A move back to the $100K to $120K region would require a noticeable shift in capital flows. Analysts highlight two possible paths:

• ETF inflows increase, pushing Bitcoin into a higher band and restarting a step-up trend.
• Holdings drop to a lower band, allowing a reset that could trigger a 10% to 13% follow-through, building strength from a healthier base.

Neither scenario brings immediate gains, but both signal the end of the flow-driven sell-off and the start of a new setup. A short dip can sometimes create better conditions for growth than forcing a move higher.

It is also notable that Bitcoin has risen on several days despite negative ETF data. This shows some resilience as the market learns to stand on its own.

The Importance of Broader Market Conditions

ETF flows set the structural framework, but the wider market environment strongly influences Bitcoin’s trajectory. Retail activity, derivatives positioning, and exchange liquidity all play a role in determining whether BTC can sustain upward momentum. For instance, large futures short positions can limit rallies even if ETF demand increases.

Macro conditions are also important. Expectations for interest rates, trends in equity markets, and regulatory updates affect investor confidence. Bitcoin often responds more to shifts in sentiment than to immediate technical signals, so a favorable backdrop could enhance gains once ETF inflows return.

What’s Next for BTC?

The path for Bitcoin to reach $100K to $120K relies primarily on structural factors within institutional holdings rather than daily fluctuations. Renewed ETF accumulation, a tactical repositioning, or changes in macro conditions could reignite momentum. In the meantime, Bitcoin is expected to stay within its present range, showing only moderate upward or downward movements.